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Bankers and Sheriffs? The Economy, Public Security, and Vote Intention for Presidential Incumbents in Central America

Autor(es):


Otro(a)s Autore(a)s: Luis Perelló


Año: 2025


Revista: Representation


Referencia:
Perelló, L., & Navia, P. (2025). Bankers and Sheriffs? The Economy, Public Security, and Vote Intention for Presidential Incumbents in Central America. Representation, 61(2), 301–312.

Students of Latin American politics have identified the economy and public security as relevant determinants of voting behaviour. This article extends those insights to Central America. We use a decade of AmericasBarometer data from 2008 to 2018 to study whether voters in six Central American countries prioritise economic or public security issues when casting votes for the incumbent candidate or party. The results reveal that positive economic perceptions – retrospective national outlook in particular – help explain rewarding incumbents. In turn, the perception of insecurity, more than crime victimisation, is related to punishing incumbents. Therefore, the evidence suggests Central Americans behave like bankers and sheriffs when casting votes, although economic views weigh more than public security perceptions. The results indicate strikingly similar accountability patterns across countries.


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